By David Gilhousen (BonaireTalker - Post #24) on Friday, October 29, 2010 - 9:15 pm: |
Tropical Storm Tomas should become a hurricane tomorrow and is on a track to pass just north of Bonaire on its trek westward. How near? Even though the official National Hurricane Center track takes it slightly south of the middle of the Caribbean, I wouldn't be surprised if it is much closer -- perhaps 60 to 80 miles to the north by late Sunday. One of the best numerical models, the National Weather Service's GFS as well as the Canadian model follow this closer track. Climatic tracks for October also favor the southern Caribbean rather than the central one. If it tracks within 60-80 miles, expect tropical storm force winds and rough seas from the west -- a bad wind reversal as you say. So keep up with the weather -- The Weather Underground is a good web site to keep up on the latest developments. I'll try to post again tomorrow -- for what it's worth I'm a retired National Weather Service meteorologist.
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By Mel Briscoe (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #820) on Saturday, October 30, 2010 - 9:29 am: |
According to http://www.stormpulse.com/tropical-storm-tomas-2010, the Canadian model is way to the north, and the GFS model approaches no closer than 125 miles. It is always interesting to read the forecaster discussion at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/300849.shtml and realize how much the forecast is an art rather than a science. My hat is off to those who make the forecasts, but we lay folks would be wise to maintain some healthy skepticism.
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By michael gaynor (Supreme BonaireTalker - Post #4180) on Saturday, October 30, 2010 - 10:35 am: |
It is generally the storm surge that gets us.
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By David Gilhousen (BonaireTalker - Post #25) on Saturday, October 30, 2010 - 12:48 pm: |
Yes, the latest model runs are further north than yesterdays. The hurricane should go through the center of the Caribbean, a good 130 miles north of Bonaire. So you are not under any risk for high winds. The hurricane is expected to slow down on Monday before taking a turn a turn to the north or northeast. This could put the west side of Bonaire under a prolonged period of swells.
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By Bart Snelder (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #103) on Saturday, October 30, 2010 - 1:00 pm: |
Yep, it's the swells and rains, particularly when a hurricane in the central Caribbean stalls and then turn away as happened with both Lenny and Omar. Difference now is that Tomas will pass us from east to west first and then will bother us again after it turns. There are no official warnings yet, but everybody is aware of Tomas approaching. Let's hope for our reefs' sake Tomas will not turn so sharply that it dips south east before turning north. In addittion, may it miss all land and particularly Haiti.....
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By Bart Snelder (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #104) on Saturday, October 30, 2010 - 1:05 pm: |
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1678
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By Olaf D. (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #376) on Sunday, October 31, 2010 - 4:38 pm: |
Hmm .. he tends to stay on the central caribbean path, and seems to head for a full-frontal with Haiti .. sure hope it won't, but it doesn't look good.
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By Glen Reem (Supreme BonaireTalker - Post #3261) on Monday, November 1, 2010 - 1:27 pm: |
With the westerly and confused winds, today is the day to check for east coast shore dive-ability!!!!
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By Bonaire Tiki Girl aka Cindi (BonaireTalker - Post #61) on Monday, November 1, 2010 - 5:13 pm: |
We drove over to Baby Beach (east coast) this afternoon and there were several guys out surfing. Yes surfing. Not good east coast shore diving conditions this afternoon.
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By Glen Reem (Supreme BonaireTalker - Post #3262) on Monday, November 1, 2010 - 5:36 pm: |
Sounds that way!!! Too bad!
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By Tom Nic (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #124) on Monday, November 1, 2010 - 7:32 pm: |
Do I understand that Bonaire has dodged a bullet as far as storm surge is concerned? Sure hope so!
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By Olaf D. (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #377) on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 - 6:48 am: |
Hmm, I read on local news now that 2 died because of heavy rainfall on Curacao .. and that rain is intensivating on Bonaire ..
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By Toby L (BonaireTalker - Post #11) on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 - 12:06 pm: |
Please let me know of the storm surge at the south end: white slave. Sometimes that area gets hit hard.
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