Hello,
I am wondering for those of you who live on the island....do you know where Russia and Venezuela are conducting the scheduled "war games". Just concerned about the damage that might be done. Also curious how much what is going on with Venezuela effects Bonaire.

Lori, I've moved this to Local Items where it is more likely to get any responses from those that live on Bonaire.

The exact coordinates are sketchy but it is thought that it will be quite close to the Venezuelan coast.

Chavez hates the USA and his close ties with Russia go hand in and with China, Iran and Cuba.

He is arming himself to the teeth and amongst other hardware, he has purchased 24 Sukhoi fighter jets, as well as submarines. he has also said that he would allow Venezuela to be a strategic base for Russian bombers.

Venezuela is an oil rich country with (as a consequence of allowing it's citizens to live in poverty) plenty of cash to spend on war. Chavez would have no hesitation in taking on the USA and would more than likely be bankrolled by Russia & China. In traditional warfare, I wouldn't bet against them.

As far as Bonaire is concerned, it would probably only be an issue if the USA called upon it's allies for support and were allowed to dock warships off the coast. That could make Bonaire a target.

However, if left alone long enough, Chavez will more than likely be overthrown or assassinated by his own fickle electorate when some other charismatic politician offers the voters something better.

Antony..I for one am quite pleased with the recent dramatic decrease in the price of a barrel of oil.
This is hurting Chavez right where he'll feel it the most, in his pocket.
And I suspect, he will now need the US more then ever to sell his oil to.

Additionally I'm sure you are aware of the vote last week in Venezuela which from what I've read only served to weaken his grip on the country.

Vince.

As is the way with every despotic dictator, power is gained through lies and maintained through violence. Chavez has not dragged his people out of poverty, instead, he is determined to thrust them into war.

He will of course be a bit p!ssed about the current oil prices but he does not need the USA as a customer. China, in the throws of their industrial revolution, would buy every drop of oil that he can produce.

We just have to hope that he doesn't decide to start a war in a last ditch attempt to stay in power.

I was just curious about the location of the "war games" this upcoming week as we will be diving Bonaire during that time and wondering what the effect of whatever they may be doing will have on the underwater life as well as any damage it may cause. I am not confident the rulers of either country will have any concern for the life underwater. I do realize they will not be near Bonaire but Venezuela is so close.

RockyMtnDiver, by what I understand from what I have read, Bonaire's International Territorial Line is 12 miles.

The 12 nm is a Netherlands Antilles claim. Once the NA dissolves (when is this supposed to happen now?) I don't know what happens to the territorial sea. I believe under the Law of the Sea treaty (NOT yet signed by the US!) that 12 nm is the default claim, but I don't know whether Bonaire has to do something to make that happen. Since Bonaire will be closer (politically) somehow to the Netherlands, perhaps the Netherlands territorial sea claim will prevail, which is also 12 nm. So, I'd bet on 12 nm carrying through....

Mel, a friend and I had to dig HARD to find the 12 nm info...lol...it wasn't easy. I was also thinking what will happen now that Bon is part of the Netherlands...the info I found included the ABCs...

Trust me, Mr. Chavez already has us by the short hairs. He owns the refinery in Curacao and also the oil storage at BOPEC. I really don't think he is that much of a threat up to now..for the future, we will just have to wait. How do you say SCUBA n Russian?

акваланг ныряет
Apparently, this is Russian for scuba diving.
I don't know how to pronounce it Michael, you'll have to figure that one out on your own.
Maybe you can figure it out over bagels in January. That's when Lou and I will be down.
Lisa :>)

Antony, PLEASEEEEE tell me you were joking about Chavez having a chance in hell against the US?

Antony
I certainly can't see any way China would jeopardize it's relationship with the US, surely it's biggest market.
Mick

I believe that the USA have signed the treaty on the Law of the Sea but have not ratified it yet. Being a signatory gives the US a voice in the deliberations related to the treaty.

Hello from St Croix, 400 miles north of Bonaire.

There is a huge refinery here, that Venezuela bought into, used to be Hess, is now Hovensa, 50% Venezuelan. They did that to get the money to build a $500 million coker, which is a refinery that can handle Venezuela's very low grade oil. They have a LOT of oil, but it's more like tar it's so thick.

I've been wondering if here(St Croix) would be a good, or a horrible place to be living if there's a war over energy, which is possible, in the future, not next week.

That dock on the western end of Bonaire is really busy with little tankers.

Venezuela's chumminess with Ruissa is disturbing. And gets little press.

The war games should have zero effect on Bonaire.

Leo, maybe we are involved in some semantics? In the US, we sign, then ratify, and then accede to the treaty internationally by signing it. So, Clinton did sign, but the Senate has not ratified, so the US cannot accede. So what I meant was we have not signed it at the international level.

Have I got this right?

Indeed Mel. The fact is, as you observe, that the US does not consider itself bound by the treaty (though we do recognize certain aspects of it as binding as a matter of standard international law). The US is a signatory to the treaty but the US Senate has not authorized the President to sign the ratification document (got to love political semantics!)

The treat was signed in the 1980s -- I think it was the Reagan administration back then.

Recently (from Clinton forward to Bush II) there has been a rapprochement of the treaty with the Senate Foreign Relations Cmte voting last year to bring the treaty forward for ratification. I think it will fall on the incoming administration to take the next step.

The treaty is an interesting piece of compromise that consolidates past treaties into a codified text. It does introduce some new concepts, however, which led to disputes among countries that share open seas, mostly for access to fisheries and natural resources.

(Message edited by lgreco on December 1, 2008)

Ric.

I wouldn't joke about war. Who would have predicted the outcome of Vietnam or the ongoing debacles in Iran & Afghanistan. Uncle Sam has a huge arsenal but it is spread a little thin. Chavez would have the latest weaponry from Russia & China at his disposal and you can bet that Russia would bankroll them to the hilt. Even if the USA were victorious, it would probably bankrupt the country. They can't afford to be drawn into another endless conflict and neither can their allies.

Mickey.

You are right, China has a lot to lose. They have the taste of capitalism and they like it. They rely on the rest of the world for their raw materials and would not like to isolate themselves. However, like Russia, they would quite happily bankroll another country to do their dirty work.

Antony,
Your comparison of Vietnam to Iran & Afghanistan is apples to oranges. Vietnam was a political venture not a war. Iran and Afghanistan are terrorist wars, where we have to find each terrorist one at a time behind any rock or cave. Chavez's Venezuela is a country with a military clearly defined, just as Iran's was a few years ago. It took the USA less than two weeks to dismantle it. You need to bone up on your history and improve your knowledge of the US military and the people's taxes that will gladly pay for ANY country that declares war on us. You either forget or do not know that the USA is the only superpower left on earth. We even defeated the USSR without firing a shot. Do not fret, should your boy invade Bonaire, the USA will be there along with the rest of the FREE world to save your ass again.

Unfortunately the US can't get it together:

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/09262008/watch.html

Rick and Antony:
The increasing difficulty in US/Russian relations is mostly the product of the US support of the country of Georgia. There is a new cold war brewing and Russia's support of Chavez and the Iran's government are just symptoms of that. Right or wrong; Russia will probably reduce it's unconditional support for Venezuela and Iran if the US allows Russia and Georgia to decide on the fate of the breakaway states in Georgia. Russia is uncomfortable with the prospects of US intervention in states that are on it's borders. My point? Iran and Venezuela are just pawns in this bigger picture. These issues will most likely quiet down if the usual under the table diplomacy and on the table saving face deals take place.

Politics and religion issues, lets batten down the hatches!

I knew any post that has "pbs" in it, is trouble. More left leaning BULL S-it. Does anyone from the left ever get a second opinion or is it just blind following. The US is an easy target to bash, we're use to it. We all do it. Sadly, there's just not another country on earth worth bashing.

Unfortunately the US can't get it together: Get a Clue!

Ric.

For a Limey, my American history is pretty good. I do realise that the Middle East & Vietnam conflicts are chalk & cheese but.........The longevity, cost, loss of life & futility of both have some similarity.

Most of the Bush administration claimed Iraq would be a breeze;

Vice President Dick Cheney said : “I’m confident that our troops will be successful, and I think it’ll go relatively quickly…Weeks rather than months".

“The war could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.?” Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld [2/7/03]

The pockets of the general public are only so deep. Iraq has cost in excess of 3 trillion dollars and counting. Countries around the world are spiralling into debt. We are seeing banks collapse, even Arnie claims that California is on the brink of bankruptcy.

Superpower is a misused word. Americas power was based on it's oil production, now it is spending over $500 billion a year on importing fuel, Russia imports nothing. China has a trade surplus of around $250 billion this year, the USA has a deficit of $63.1 billion.

According to statistics from Reuteurs:

In size of infantry, China is at the top.
In advanced technology, America is top.
In terms of best trained the United Kingdom is at the top.

However, non of that means Jack if you ain't got the money to back it up.

Let's hope that some brave soul takes Chavez out before he gets to big for his boots.

Nobody is bashing the US Ric, we Brits have a long and fruitful relationship with America and we have stood side by side in many conflicts. The reality check is that war is expensive and we could all do without it.

Peace Man....................



(Message edited by Bondy on December 3, 2008)

The Iraq war was over in weeks. The war on terrorists will take a generation or longer. I hope we can at least agree on that. BTW, if you reread Bush's State of the Union Address from 2002, he told this to the world. The loss of life between Vietnam and Iraq plus the war on terrorists is not even in the same ballpark. If you really want the see the USA loss of life look up WW I and II. We lost tens of thousands in a day. You are correct in your statistics from Reuteurs, hence what good does the infantry do you if the last thing you see is a flash. And we defiantly agree that Chavez needs to be dealt with today. Now that we have Obama, all is well. Our Savior has arrived. See my next post for the latest Obama save the world campaign.

Peace Bro............

P.S. Can you name me the last popular war?

text removed do to copyright violation. Please post links to news articles not the articles directly

Also, let's remember to keep this civil.

(Message edited by modcynde on December 3, 2008)

Wow, Ric is an example of a grumpy loser in the election. Chill, man, make the best of it. Go with the tide of optimism and forget the campaign rhetoric.

I suspect this thread will be closed rather soon!

Mel, I post facts and you make a generalized statement without a clue of who I voted for in the election. We have "Our Savior" and I am fat, happy and rich. Only in America!

Chavez is a joke. A left wing thug being propped by oil money, which, by the way, explains why he is currently sucking up to the Russians - significantly lower oil prices leaves him vulnerable inside as well as outside Venezuela so naturally he's out shopping for friends to protect himself both internally and externally. A barrell of oil at anywhere under $90 dollars a barrell severely damages the regimes in Iran and Venezuela which explains why they are the two biggest oil price hawks in the cartel. They better get used to it because I believe some major oil using habits in the US changed for good when gas went over $4.00 a gallon and appears there is big bucks coming into the system in the near future to cut back oil consumption in the US even more. Recession doesn't entirely explain the biggest and quickest fall of oil prices we've ever seen. To suggest Chavez would have any chance at all militarily is laughable at best. NATO would squash him like a bug and the Russians would leave him hanging because the last thing they want to due is engage NATO when its fighting together. An attack on one is an attack on all per the NATO Alliance. If Chavez attacked a country allied with NATO, (this would include Bonaire due to its European element) he'd be done in short order. I'd stake my reputation as a military officer for over 30 years on that.

When in England, at a fairly large conference, Colin Powell was asked by the Archbishop of Canterbury if our plans for Iraq were just an example of empire building by George Bush.

He answered by saying, Over the years, the United States has sent many of its fine young men and women into great peril to fight for freedom beyond our borders.

The only amount of land we have ever asked for in return is enough to bury those that did not return. You could have heard a pin drop.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

There was a conference in France where a number of international engineers were taking part, including French and American. During a break, one of the French engineers came back into the room saying Have you heard the latest dumb stunt Bush has done? He has sent an aircraft
carrier to Indonesia to help the tsunami victims. What does he intended to do, bomb them?
A Boeing engineer stood up and replied, Our
carriers have three hospitals on board that can treat several hundred people, they are nuclear powered and can supply emergency electrical power to shore facilities, they have three cafeterias with the capacity to feed 3,000
people three meals a day, they can produce several thousand gallons of fresh water from sea water each day, and they carry half a dozen helicopters for use in transporting victims and injured to and from their flight deck. We have eleven such ships. How many does France have?
You could have heard a pin drop.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

A U.S. Navy Admiral was attending a naval conference that included Admirals from the U.S., English, Canadian, Australian and French Navies. At a cocktail reception, he found himself standing with a large group of Officers
that included personnel from most of those countries. Everyone was chatting away in English as they sipped their drinks but a French admiral suddenly complained that, whereas Europeans learn many languages, Americans learn only English. He then asked, Why is it that we always have to speak English in these conferences rather than speaking French? Without hesitating, the American Admiral replied Maybe it's because the Brits, Canadians, Aussies and Americans
arranged it so you wouldn't have to speak German. You could have heard a pin drop.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

AND THIS STORY FITS RIGHT IN WITH THE ABOVE...

Robert Whiting, an elderly gentleman of 83, arrived in Paris by plane. At French Customs, he took a few minutes to locate his passport in his carry on. You have been to France before, monsieur? the customs officer asked sarcastically. Mr. Whiting admitted that he had been to France previously. Then you should know enough to have your passport ready. The American said, The last time I was here, I didn't have to
show it. Impossible. Americans always have to show your passports on arrival in France!
The American senior gave the Frenchman a long hard look. Then he quietly explained, Well, when I came ashore at Omaha Beach on D-Day in 1944 to help liberate this country, I couldn't find a single Frenchmen to show a passport to.
You could have heard a pin drop.

the link you supplied is copyrited and willnot be allowed. Ric, this is the second time this evening I have had to edit your posts, once more and I will suspend your account
Copyright 2008, The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP Online news report may not be published, broadcast or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
Please bring this thread back to the orginal question about will the war games effect Bonaire

(Message edited by modfreddie on December 3, 2008)

With reference to the story about Power and the Archbishop of Cantenbury: it never happened. Not in England. Not in response to a question by the Archbishop. Powell, did say something similar (but not what you are quoting him saying) at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 26, 2003.

The story as posted, is not a fact. It is an urban legend.

Unsubstantiated stories lifted verbatim from the internet, are not necessarily facts!

As for the war games in the vicinity of Bonaire: at least I hope that the navies involved won't use any low-frequency active sonars.

Correction above: the story about Power Powell and the Archbishop of Cantenbury .... &*^#@@ dyslexia.

Leo.

Don't let silly things like the truth get in the way of jingoism.

I try to avoid these, but I got to make a comment about chavez and the venezuelan oil bidness (a texas word). Much of the oil production in Venezuela was developed by Dutch, American, and British companies between the first decade of this century and the mid 70s when the oil industry was nationalized under Presidente Perez. Obviously, Perez through Chavez have not passed substantial wealth through to the lower and middle classes of Venezuela since nationalization, but from my travels in Venezuela in the mid to late 90s, there was very little evidence of any wealth passing down from oil production EVER.
Glass houses should have extra protection or lots of insurance.

just my thoughts

el joe

Ric "Limbaugh": "Iran and Afghanistan are terrorist wars, where we have to find each terrorist one at a time behind any rock or cave."

Seriously? You think you can "win" a war going door to door lookin' fer terr'rsts? For every door kicked in, you've got 5-10 more added to the ranks that hate us. Un-winnable and ignorant. Wow; hopefully you're just a troll, playing the "ugly American" stereotype for laughs. If not, I hope most know that not all Americans are like that. Now troll-on, Ric Limbaugh. Git-R-Done! Pfft.

Scubachef,

I am interested in your solution. Just because the Muslim religious fanatics will never give up, Does that mean we should? So far they control much or most of the Middle East, Indonesia, Africa, are gaining influence in England, and have Spain, France, and now India quaking in their boots. It seems "treating them nice" is not an option. Just look at how they treat "infidels" (thats anyone that does not agree with them or their religion) in the territories they control.

I agree, it is an almost impossible war to win, but losing is certainly not an option.

Losing is the ONLY option for a “war” this amorphous, with no real goal or end-point; terrorism will always exist. The only thing we have done is exacerbate hatred towards America. Just one example: If we were really trying to champion some “just” cause, we would stop siding with Israel at all costs, and force a real solution to the Palestine issue. I don’t buy into your straw man argument – that just because a country is Muslim, it is therefore under control of “fanatics”. Every country/region you site was “Muslim” (gasp) before any War on Terror. We’re not the world’s nanny. These are sovereign nations. Just because it isn’t our preferred flavor of rule, doesn’t give us the right to dictate how a country is run. If that were the case, those horrible Muzl'm Terr'rsts would be equally justified in their Crusade, no? If all these countries are quaking in their boots, why aren’t they in full support of our “war” effort? Obviously because they see there is not a “war” solution to these complex POLITICAL issues. I’m by no means a pacifist, but when force is necessary, be able to justify the actions, and then strike swift and hard. I'm not so much "anti-war" as I am opposed to hypocrisy and lack of reasoned judgement.

You're assuming that Islamic terrorists are rational and would react positively to changes in other government's policys and/or negotiation. I don't buy it. This will be a long struggle just like the cold war. It may not be necessary to actually "win" in the conventional sense. It may be only necessary to degrade the terrorist capabilities to the point that they consist mainly of loud mouth thugs who can talk the talk but no longer walk the walk to any great degree. Witness Al Queda in Iraq - they no longer have anywhere near the capabilities they had a couple of years ago.