|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #44) on Wednesday, October 13, 2004 - 4:51 pm:|
I have spent the last 6 months researching the idea of 'peak oil' ie the view that we are at or very near the peak of oil production worldwide (which represents the point at which the cost of oil (and other hydrocarbons) starts to rise and rise and rise). Since the vast majority of people who get to Bonaire do so by air (and since the island is so dependent on tourists) has anyone in the island administration started to consider the ramifications of this? Ever rising fuel bills for aircraft would slowly strangle long distance tourism. It may sound alarmist but is it not worth giving it some thought? Anyone else out there pondering this question?
|By Yana girl (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #205) on Thursday, October 14, 2004 - 4:50 pm:|
Nope,no thoughts on that subject..... I just ponder the Great Diving I'm in store for when I return to the Island.
|By gregg brewer (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #632) on Thursday, October 14, 2004 - 5:24 pm:|
|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #45) on Thursday, October 14, 2004 - 5:36 pm:|
Well dont say you didnt hear it here first.......type 'peak oil' into a google search and see where it takes you.....(when you have some time that is)
|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #47) on Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 3:00 am:|
I just noticed that Dutch Carribean have gone bust. One of the factors in their demise may well have been the spiralling cost of jet fuel. Most US carriers are under intense financial pressure for the same reason. What happens if the fuel price doesnt come down any time soon? Fast forward a few years and the oil price is over $100 a barrel (perhaps a conservative view). Airlines will have to hike fares substantially and/or cut routes. Would you still go to Bonaire if your ticket cost 50% more? This issue is as big a potential threat to the islands success as the lawlessness one, and I sure hope someone at the top is thinking the ramifications through........
|By Brigitte Kley - Coco Palm Garden (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #193) on Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 7:55 am:|
Sorry Andrew, completly wrong. The bankruptcy of DCA has nothing to do with the fuel prices.
|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #48) on Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 10:53 am:|
Brigitte - thanks for the reply - but surely if debt was a problem then the recent hiking in aviation fuel would have made the situation much, much worse? I dont really think you can say it didnt play any part - you define it as inefficient - well staff and fuel costs are the 2 biggest costs to an airline, so if one shoots up it precipitates collapse. I read today in the Financial Times that Delta in the US is thinking of going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection (citing soaring fuel costs), and other US carriers are already there. I believe only 2 major US carriers have made any profit in the last 12 months. The oil threat is a very serious one in my opinion, with clear ramifications to overseas tourism, and the impacts of it are best thought through now rather than 5 years down the line. Still doesnt seem that most folk are not that interested, but I very much doubt I will be paying the same fare next year when I fly out to Bonaire.
|By Brigitte Kley - Coco Palm Garden (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #195) on Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 11:14 am:|
Andrew, you really can not compare Delta or any other airline with DCA/ALM ... this airline should have been out of buisines 10 years ago .. on the latest 4 years ago when they declared the Air ALM bankrupt - all the debts stayed at that time with ALM and all assets whent to DCA ... this was a case of mismanagement, political appointments, corruption and (under investigation) fraude and nothing else.
|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #49) on Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 12:58 pm:|
I guess where I was trying to go in relation to Bonaire was - is there other methods of getting tourists in if airlines become too expensive etc? The obvious answer I guess is the cruise liners - the big boats are less sensitive to price hikes (they use less costly fuel etc). At present the big boats are something of a rareity down there I think - I just wondered whether someone in the Antillean govt is thinking this through. Without tourists Bonaire would be in deep trouble....which would be very unfortunate as I love the place
|By David Johnson (BonaireTalker - Post #55) on Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 2:12 pm:|
|By Wally and Eva (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #569) on Monday, October 18, 2004 - 10:21 pm:|
As a business person whose entire raw material inputs are oil derivatives (and buys about $5M of those products) and is constantly briefed by national associations, buying groups, economist and other smart peoples I can definately state that the new price per barrel of oil will settle out in the $40 to $50 range. $25 bbl prices are gone, gone, gone. OPEC and Russia are pumping at 100%. Demand is out stripping supply. China is booming. This is the new price of oil and it will stabilize here for the next few years. It's just the new level and prices are adjusting accordingly. Cost of boats are going up about 4% because of this and everybody is poised to move in January. If you want a boat or other oil derivative item...December is a good time to move on it. The market is correcting rapidly.
|By Reza Gorji (BonaireTalker - Post #15) on Monday, October 18, 2004 - 10:26 pm:|
This is a very intellectual discussion. Progressing further I have 2 points to make:
|By Jake Richter (Moderator - Post #5202) on Monday, October 18, 2004 - 11:17 pm:|
To answer #2, it's because Bonaire's U.S. tourism is presently somewhere in the 20-25K visitor range per year using existing carriers. A new carrier might hope to get 30-40% of that traffic (rough guess). The only way an airline will presently fly from the U.S. to Bonaire for such a low tourist count is if someone guarantees seats with hard cash. Bonaire has no money to do that.
|By Reza Gorji (BonaireTalker - Post #16) on Tuesday, October 19, 2004 - 1:33 pm:|
Thanks Jake for your reply. Points well taken.
|By J.J zambrano mazzei (BonaireTalker - Post #53) on Tuesday, October 19, 2004 - 5:43 pm:|
brigitte.. I´m agree with you.the bankruptcy 0f DCA has nothing to do with the rise of fuel prices. DCA started with a lot of problems ,the biggest one was the accumulated debt from ALM.the second one (my opinion) came with the bad service on board,luggage missing,flight delays (almost every time) and the creation of new alternatives like Bonairexel and divi-divi...
|By Jerry Besco (BonaireTalker - Post #49) on Tuesday, October 19, 2004 - 7:03 pm:|
Time will tell, yes the rich have and always will travel but American middle class might have to rethink this once affordable luxury. I'm a Baby Boomer who is middle class and the relatively cheap air fares have enticed me and others to vacation abroad but if those days are soon changing we will change our plans accordingly. I'm no fan of Mexico but I see a boom this winter/spring in travel there because of proximity and having escaped the hurricanes that ravaged the Caribbean recently. I like most on the site love the Island of Bonaire and in the words of Tony Bennet left our hearts here as nowhere else beckons us. The only thing constant is change. Best to all.
|By Reza Gorji (BonaireTalker - Post #17) on Tuesday, October 19, 2004 - 8:14 pm:|
You hit the nail on the head. We all love Bonaire.
|By David Johnson (BonaireTalker - Post #60) on Tuesday, October 19, 2004 - 8:43 pm:|
It is worth noting that rapidly escalating energy prices impact the costs of most consumer goods -- everything from plastics (made from the stuff) to food (making fertilizer, tilling, harvesting and transporting the goods to market all consume fuel) to home heating oil/gas/electric.
|By Wally and Eva (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #575) on Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - 7:16 pm:|
David is correct on the component price increase in oil and how it affects overall pricing. Resin and gel coat are 20% of my cost of building material. Those products have gone up in price 30% since last December. That adds 6% to my cost of goods sold. If I raise prices 6% I re-coop my extra expense but my gross margin slides downward by 6/10 of 1 %. To maintain margin I either raise prices 6.6% or become more efficient.
|By David Johnson (BonaireTalker - Post #65) on Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - 11:46 pm:|
|By Stan Eker (BonaireTalker - Post #47) on Thursday, October 21, 2004 - 12:39 am:|
There's at least a couple of different technologies currently in research to replace the jet engine. I've forgotten the second one, but the one I do remember seeing used O2 and H2 for fuel (can you say "water electrolysis"?), called the Pulse Detonation Engine or PDE. If it lives up to it's promise, it'll provide significantly better fuel efficiency AND a heck of a lot higher operating speed, with a simpler engine design. It'll also operate in near space, so the 2 hour sub-orbital hop to Bonaire someone else mentioned might be just around the corner. NASA and the US military are both funding projects on PDEs. It's nice to know that not everyone has stuck their head in the sand on energy & transportation futures.
|By J Rushman (BonaireTalker - Post #64) on Thursday, October 21, 2004 - 2:02 am:|
"I do remember seeing used O2 and H2 for fuel (can you say "water electrolysis"?),..."
|By Stan Eker (BonaireTalker - Post #49) on Thursday, October 21, 2004 - 4:01 am:|
Heck, almost any airliner would have a Hindenberg-style accident if they didn't take special precautions with static grounding lines. I have a nice little AVI of a young woman filling up her car. During the process, she sets the autofill lever, then slides in and out of the car. The resulting static spark as she next grabs the filler nozzle sets the fumes on fire. Fortunately they got it out.
|By Bob Davison (BonaireTalker - Post #41) on Thursday, October 21, 2004 - 12:03 pm:|
" We really need to save the dwindling oil supplies for manufacturing. "
|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #50) on Thursday, October 21, 2004 - 6:09 pm:|
Bob - if only that were true. While the refining bottleneck in the US doesnt help matters there the problem runs a lot deeper than that. Check out energybulletin.net for a range of articles on the issue.
|By Wally and Eva (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #577) on Thursday, October 21, 2004 - 11:09 pm:|
It is a shame to burn all that oil for transportation when those wonderfully long carbon molecule chains can make so many cool long lasting product.
|By Stan Eker (BonaireTalker - Post #51) on Friday, October 22, 2004 - 1:30 am:|
I'll stand by my "dwindling" comment. There's only a finite amount of crude on the planet, and we're (literally!) burning through it in record time. Yes, there's still quite a bit that we haven't explored, but new uses are being found for oil all the time. It's a major feedstock for drug production (no, not those drugs), plastics, and a huge number of other vital industries like electronics and agriculture. It's almost impossible for ANYONE reading this forum to go an entire day without touching products based on oil "Hey, really nice oak keyboard and mouse you have there, and the seaweed dress looks stunning!"
|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #51) on Friday, October 22, 2004 - 2:20 am:|
The 'hydrogen' solution is also problematic - hydrogen is not a fuel per se its an energy carrier. You have to make the hydrogen first, which involves electrolysis which consumes electricity. To make the electricity you can a) burn fossil fuels (oops greenhouse gases - and those saying we have a ton of coal left, yes we do but it throws out a load of CO2), and we all now know oil and gas are dwindling b) use nuclear (lo greenhouse gases but what about the waste) c) use renewables (but the wind dont blow and the sun dont shine all the time). In addition just putting in the new hydrogen infrastructure (think of all the new H stations etc) would consume huge amounts of resources. Its maybe a 10-20 year away partial solution. We face a crunch of soaring energy prices in the 1-5 year period, and we cant go spewing out huge amounts more CO2 than we are already. Its a difficult conundrum, thats for sure
|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #52) on Friday, October 22, 2004 - 2:27 am:|
Wally...if only there was another 100 years of supply left. I'm afraid not even the most optimistic surveys are anywhere near that. If you have the time look through this article:
|By Ron Edison (BonaireTalker - Post #46) on Friday, October 22, 2004 - 10:24 am:|
It seems to me that given the steady Trade Winds and almost constant sunshine, Bonaire is in a rather unique position to develop wind and solar energy alternatives and become something of a showcase/proving ground for those technologies. Such a showcase could prove the viability of these alternatives and improve the standard of living for locals as well as tourists with lower energy costs and air conditioning.
|By David Johnson (BonaireTalker - Post #70) on Friday, October 22, 2004 - 12:52 pm:|
|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #53) on Friday, October 22, 2004 - 2:25 pm:|
Ron - I agree and the thought occurred to me that they would be able to generate copious quantities of wind power - however I have never seen the wind turbine by Lac Bay actually working
|By Glen Reem (Extraordinary BonaireTalker - Post #1890) on Friday, October 22, 2004 - 4:51 pm:|
There was also a wind turbine downtown in Kralendijk, just north of Divi, for many years. Never saw it turning; they finally took the thing down. Don't know why it wasn't used.
|By Wally and Eva (Experienced BonaireTalker - Post #579) on Friday, October 22, 2004 - 7:48 pm:|
Often wondered about the wind generators....never seen the one at Lac Cai spin. Bearings and wiring salt toasted maybe?
|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #54) on Saturday, October 23, 2004 - 6:13 pm:|
I note American have announced a big raft of job cuts citing fuel prices as a prime reason:
|By David Johnson (BonaireTalker - Post #73) on Saturday, October 23, 2004 - 10:09 pm:|
|By andrew hamilton (BonaireTalker - Post #55) on Sunday, October 24, 2004 - 3:29 am:|
Many thanks for the reply David. You are absolutely correct, the ramifications of ever increasing fuel prices go far beyond the airline industry (ie recessions etc etc) - this introductory piece from the UK gives a flavour of the implications
|By David Johnson (BonaireTalker - Post #75) on Sunday, October 24, 2004 - 3:19 pm:|
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