The air fare I was looking at just went from $760 to $860. Does anybody have experience with this? Do you think it will bounce back down or keep increasing? We will not be traveling until mid-September.

It will bounce Joe.

I do not understand the logic, but, I have seen the fare be one price on Thursday, higher on Friday, lower (than the Thursday price) on Monday's and so on and so on.

Like someone else recently said on this board. Find a fare you are comfortable with, buy it and do not look back.

I think so too. I was all set to pounce on the earlier airfare, had my credit card out and everything, when it went up. I'll give it until Sunday or Monday to change. I hate it when that happens...

Joe,

air fares to the caribbean traditionally go down in july for september travel...september is the slow season (and also hurricane season)

Gregg,
As I have zero experience traveling anywhere in the Southeast beyond Orlando, Perhaps you can enlighten me a bit. Can you put odds to the fares decreasing? Say, 50-50? 80-20? Any idea what kind of decrease usually occurs? 50%?? Can you give me your best estimates? (Don't be afraid to guess. I do engineering too, I know how to interpret estimates.)
Thanks for the input!

Joe, I answered on another thread...but if you find a fare from the left coast in the 700 range...JUMP ON IT! You will not find a lower fair than 700s going to Bonaire from the left coast...

Joe,

I travel multiple times per year to Bonaire from West Virginia and am planning a trip to Bonaire in September. I will be looking for fares in July to be about $650 for the September...now $800. My experience is that the probability is 80:20 that they will be much less expensive in July than now. My reasons are several fold:
1) airlines rarely discount tickets more than 3 mo in advance; conversley, they are hoping people will book early and lock in higher rate seats (which tends to defer the belief that booking early will get you cheap seats)
2) september/october/early Nov is off season for the caribbean (kids are back in school, summer is over, people don't travel much)
3) Sept/Oct/Nov is hurricane season...people don't travel as often

Further indication of this phenomena is that you will find many resorts offer their fall discount specials (trying to bring tourists in during the slow season)

Finally, my belief is based on many years of travel to bonaire in which I follow air rates very closely...

However, I do agree with one of the other commentors...if you find a fare that you think is acceptable to you, take it!...Next year when you are planning your return, you can look back on the ticket game and see how the trend worked.

good luck

Joe,

I forgot to add, look on the internet early in the morning. Each day the airlines evaluate their ticket sales for certain flights and release additional seats at the cheaper rates. If you get on line early, you may catch a very good fare...if you wait until noon, somebody else got the cheap fare...

Gregg is right about the fares changing during the day. A year and a half ago I bought round trip tickets at about 5 a.m. to Las Vegas for a little over $300.00 round trip. When I checked at about 8:30 a.m. for an employee, the prices were over $500.00. Fortunately, he purchased his tickets later in the week, again early in the morning, for a price similar to mine.

Joe,

I have never personally done this but I have been told by reliable sources that if the airfare goes down after you purchase your ticket you can call the airline and receive either a credit for the difference to your credit card or a voucher (I think it is called a chit) for the difference to use at a later time. Several people on the Anguilla forum I frequent have done this for sure with American Airlines.

According to the AA web page:

What if my fare is reduced in the future before I leave - can I get the difference in fares refunded?
A: This answer is dependent on the type of fare purchased as each fare has its own fare rules. Please call American Airlines Reservations at 1-800-433-7300 to have an agent evaluate your ticket.

So this might be something you want to check out before purchasing your ticket if that is important to you.

Belinda

Joe,
My wife and I travel from Seattle to Bonaire and have always vacationed at the start of the slow season,(mid April), and haven't payed over 700 yet. About four months ago AARP had an article on obtaining cheap tickets. Some points were to call on weekends and watch the internet at this time. It was mentioned they get in a one upmanship thing but these prices are not announced and if you catch them at the right time you can save big bucks. Also working directly will help. I have called the same airline not even 5 minutes apart and got a completely different price. Calling partner airlines can get you a different price too. I hope this helps and maybe we will see you there in September. This will be our first September trip. Were hoping to catch some less windy days for east side diving. I have a question for the group. Is there much of a problem with flights being canceled during the hurricane season?

Robert,

I think it may depend on how you are getting to Bonaire...if you travel thru Miami, PR or Montego Bay, you have the risk of a hurricane. However, if you are flying direct to Aruba, you will over fly any hurricane. September is peak hurricane season. Its a game of probabilities...will a hurricane hit PR in Sept on or about the time I will be connecting? Who knows... BTW, I've never lost a flight due to a hurricane..guess I've been lucky

talked with the travel agent yesterday who took care of my arrangements in January - he says all fares are up an average of $20 overall due to the increase in gas prices. maybe that's part of it too...

Wow, lots of great information. Thanks everyone.
A friend told me that National Public Radio did a story on Bonaire 2 days ago. When I heard this, I immediately went on-line last night and bought tickets to avoid the "surge" of tourists which I think will drive up the prices (at least temporarily). It sounds like prices from SMF would only go down slightly if at all anyway. I will try to keep an eye on prices as the date nears - for next time. Meanwhile, it's worth a couple hundred potential dollars to rest assured I have seats. (I hear there's no guarantee on getting aboard the SJU-BON flight though.)

If you are making a connection in SJU to/from AE without a stopover, you have boarding priority. The last few people with problems getting to Bonaire seemed to have taken U.S.Air to St. Thomas and then had trouble getting to SJU from St. T.. AA and AE are essentially the same airline.

My sister and I flew AA/AE in June and stayed over in SJU both directions and had no problems getting to Bonaire or home. In Nov. we went to PR for 10 days using CO and my checked suitcase was a day late. I think they make a special effort for PR since most people are heading for a cruise and will really raise a stink if their luggage doesn't show up in time.